THIS IS AN UNEDITED TRANSCRIPT
Hello, I'm John Milewski. Welcome to Wilson Center NOW, a production of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. My guest today is Oge Onubogu, who is director of the Wilson Center's Africa Program, and she joins us to hear this 10th anniversary publication, Africa Year in Review, a terrific resource.
Oge, Congratulations on the latest edition and welcome. Thanks for joining us. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. So before we dig into that, the trend lines that you identify in this publication, I want to do spend a minute since we have you to talk about some headlines out of the African continent. If you could talk to us about what's happening, the latest in D.R. Congo.
And then also, I know we've had some elections recently, if you give us an update on that as well. Sure. So we see the the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the rebel group, M23, is making significant inroads or has made significant inroads in in Goma. And so this is quite significant as we're seeing, you know, large numbers of displaced people.
We're seeing large concerns about the humanitarian situation over there. You know, one of the points that I always like to to highlight for folks is that right before even before the crisis in Sudan, that we're currently seeing the numbers of internally displaced people that we have in the east and in the eastern Congo. But one of the largest, if not the largest on the face of this planet.
And so this is really concerning because we're seeing this rebel group, M23, has made significant inroads in Goma, moving into Bukavu as well. So definitely one that we should keep our eyes on. The crisis in the DRC is not new. This has been ongoing for several years and trying to find it's important that we find a resolution to this as sooner rather than later.
Thanks about that. And then also, I know there are some election results that you've been looking at as well. Yeah. So actually over the weekend we saw the A.U. elections. So the A.U., there was an election for a new chairperson of the African Union. Pretty dramatic elections as they played out over the weekend where we saw the foreign minister of Djibouti emerge as the new chairperson of the African of the African Union with his emergence as chairperson.
There are also commissioners that were elected as well. So this chairperson comes in at a time where we see, you know, there are conflicts and crises on the continent that require immediate attention. As we've highlighted the conflict in Haiti, in the eastern Congo, we see the crisis in Sudan as well. So there is quite a lot on the on the on the new chair president's plate to address, as well as navigating relationships with the new administration here in the U.S. There'll be no easing into the job and it's going to be hit.
The ground running definitely hit the ground running in this case. So tell us about the publication and about contributors. So thank you again. So our Africa Review and I want to I know you've put it up before, but I really want to put it up again. Our Africa Year Review publication, this is our 10th year of putting out this this publication.
The first was published in 2015. And every year we reach out to policymakers, academics, researchers and researchers, people from the private sector in the U.S. and on the African continent to basically give us some time to take a step back, review the activities or main events or main trends. Main events that happened in the previous year to help inform our thinking and our on this standing as we engage in addressing challenges or opportunities that may emerge in the present year, as well as also informing U.S. Africa relations in the current year.
So we do this on a yearly basis and this year actually gave us an opportunity to go back and look at some of the publications, some of what we published in the very first edition in 2015, and actually sort of review how things have changed or how some things have actually remained the same. And I think this is really an opportunity for us to look at the trends over a longer term, over a ten year period.
So while we put out these publications on an annual basis, this 10th year edition was an opportunity for us to actually take a longer term view. As you'll notice in this publication, there are some individuals who wrote for us in this current publication who were also offered in 2015. So it was an opportunity for us to go back and ask, Have your views changed?
Things still the same? We have quite a wonderful selection of authors and here we have a current member of Congress who highlights the situation in Sudan. We have a former president from Nigeria, President Olusegun Obasanjo, who shares his reflections on 2020 for a very honest reflections on how he has seen things play out in West Africa, in central Africa, in southern Africa, and also at the continental level.
And he's asking questions on, you know, what are lessons we can draw from this to ensure that 2024 wasn't a wasted year. But there are lessons that could be applied as we look at strengthening either US-Africa relations or strengthening networks and connections on the continent. For this current year. We also have a lot of authors who are from the previous US administration who have highlighted some of their areas of work from the work that they've done in USAID or the work they've done at the Millennium Challenge Corporation or US TDA, and some of the work that the US government has also done in building relationships around the globe to a corridor project.
So it was kind of it was nice to get some of those perspectives of individuals in government. And then we also have authors who come from multilateral institutions like the U.N. that share their views on how on the future of multilateralism and what that means for engagements on the African continent or how things are evolving on the continent.
We have you know, a writer, those who also share their global views and global perspectives of where Africa sits within the global discussions. There is a piece in here that highlights South Africa's presidency of the G20. Now, this is the first time that the G20 will be that the presidency of the G20 will be held by by an African country, South Africa, and the meeting will also be held in in South Africa itself later in the year.
So it's a broad range of of offers and themes that we've covered in here that we've sort of placed in three different sections where there are authors who have written on trade and investment. We've looked at picture on peace and security and then also looked at Africa's evolving role in the global arena. And all through each of these sections, we look at not only the the the challenges and opportunities on the continent, but we look at how these it will inform U.S. Africa relations in 2025.
So and some of the good news is that people can get this publication free of charge. Right? There are hard copies are available at the Wilson Center. And if you go online, there's a digital copy available at the Africa Program page at Wilson Center, Dawg. And I just have to say, you know, you sit down with this for a day or a weekend and you will learn more about the goings on on the African continent.
And if you spent maybe a year watching cable news and hope to get that of which it's really a terrific resource. Congratulations on that. And it's not just policy. Tell us about the artwork on the cover you're looking at. So, yeah, so one of the things that we did with this is this is our 10th year anniversary. We also wanted to give it, give, give the publication a refreshed look that also reflects a lot of the changes that we're seeing on the continent.
So much has changed, especially within the creative sector on the continent, with many young people involved in the digital space, many young people involved in the creative industry. So the from the front cover for this edition of Africa Year Review was actually done by a young Kenyan artist, Lulu Cutolo. And so our goal is to ensure that while we highlight policy issues in Africa Year review that we're also able to use this publication to highlight the work of young and emerging artists from across the continent.
So we're not going to do a Cliff Notes for the entire publication. People can read that themselves, but I'm going to ask you about each of the sections, if you would provide sort of an overview thought on on anything you want to highlight to a particular country or situation. And we'll start with the section on trade and investment.
So on the section on trade and investment, I actually thought when we were compiling this, we actually thought it was really interesting because the first edition when it came out in 2015, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, AGOA, was just reauthorized for ten years. So 2025 is actually the 10th year anniversary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, and it's up for renewal.
It expires in September of this year and there are discussions around its renewal. As we went back and we looked at the edition in 2020, then in 2015, we realized that some of the discussions that we were having then in 2015 are similar to the discussions that we're having now. And so it was one that one of the authors who who wrote on AGOA in 2015, Florrie Lizza, who is the chair of the Corporate Council on Africa, actually wrote for this the but this review edition as well.
And she was also on the panel for the public events for the launch that we had in early February. I would definitely encourage your viewers to watch the public launch events because we dive into a lot of the scenes and topics during that conversation. But it was I think it was really interesting and I would encourage those who are working in the area of trade and investment or thinking about how we advance US-Africa trade to to go back and look at some of those conversations around AGOA in 2015 to help inform that thinking and, and understand to inform the thinking and discussions happening now as we are, as we have these conversations about reauthorization since
this act is set to expire and in September of this year. Another thing that really struck out in the trade and investment section was that back in 2015 there were conversations about, you know, increase in foreign direct investment and wanting to see more done on the continent where there could be direct investment in infrastructure development, moving away from sort of the the aid framework and thinking more about development and how private businesses and the private sector could play a stronger role in investment in infrastructure.
Fast forward in this addition. Since then, we've seen the creation of Prosper Africa, we've seen the NCC, we've seen a lot of investments that has gone into the low betel corridor as well. So that conversation that started in 2015 to see the US doing more
And so some of them still in their early stages, but at least it shows that there has been some change and progress from from 2015. So those are some of the areas that I'd like to highlight within the trade and investment side. Up next is the peace and security. Peace And when we began our conversation with your update from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Tell us about anything you'd like to highlight from that section. So I think on the peace and security side, this is one of the areas where we see, you know, sometimes the more things change, the more they remain the same. I think there is a there's an article in here that sort of shows the examples from the from the 2024 version that shows an example of how the US was able to work to try to bring some peace and stability to the to the the conflict in the DRC Congo.
So that's an example. And so even though as we see the conflict in the DRC, we see sort of a flaring up of the conflict again in the DRC, Congo, in eastern DRC, the article in here, it's written by Cecily Brewer. The article in here provides some lessons that we could apply moving forward, I think, on the peace and security front, too, as well as I go back to the 2015, to the to the 2015 edition, there was talk where Burkina Faso, where we saw sort of the conversation around Burkina Faso as seen some progress after the elections.
Those were the discussions in 2015. Fast forward to the review in 2024. We're now talking about Burkina Faso as part of, you know, the the east, the alliance for Sahelian, countries that have now broken away from from us. So under the peace and security front, as we see progress, we also see again, as I say, the more things change, the more they remain the same.
And I think it's this section in particular pushes us to review how we define success in the field of peace and security, how we define progress, how we set out our markers and milestones or indicators for progress. Are we too quick sometimes to move out of an environment without really addressing the root causes of of of the problem?
And so I think in the in the peace and security front, while there are, you know, we see the the the the discussions around the different conflicts, it gives us an opportunity to review. Another thing that I, I want to highlight in that section too, as well, is that we saw, you know, with the civil war in Sudan, a lot of at least a lot of our offers.
This 2024 was really a highlights on the situation in Sudan. There was a dire situation in the southern Sudan, the world's largest humanitarian crisis. Unfortunately, not getting the level of attention, global attention that it truly deserves. And we see our authors in here. Congressman John James writes about the role that Congress has played to sort of put the situation in Sudan in the spotlight.
The co-chair of our Sudan's working group, Ambassador Donald Booth, also highlights as well in his piece with some ideas or examples of things that the administration could pay attention to, where at the end of the day, resolving the conflict in Sudan is the priority on the peace and security. We also go to the Horn of Africa to as well, and we see where Turkey plays a mediation role in in a crisis in the Horn of Africa.
So again, I think to the to the theme or several points that I raised at the beginning, we see changes. But the more things change, the more things remain the same. So it pushes us to ask ourselves the question, how do we define success? How do we clearly work through different conflicts? How do we identify the different actors that are involved in the conflict to ensure that we reach sustainable conclusions which which provides a natural segue to the leadership and governance section?
Right? Because these things are attached at the hip. Without the proper governance and leadership, these hotspots develop. And if there's going to be a way out, it's going to revolve around leadership and good governance. Yeah, so leadership and the governance, you know, 2024 was a big election year for for the continent. Well, not only the continent, it was a mega election year for the entire world, basically.
So they were at the beginning of the year, I believe there were about 19 elections that were scheduled to happen. But we ended up with about give or take, I think about six, eight, 16, 17 elections, ended up happening in 2024. But at the beginning of the year, there were 20. There were about 19 on the calendar in this section of leadership and and and governance.
Again, it was nice to get those reflections from the former president of Nigeria, General Staff, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who shares his own personal and honest reflections on how things have, how things have have played out on the continent in 2024. And I think he leaves with that with a question there. How do we take the lessons from 2020 for the lessons and leadership, the lessons in governance?
Some of them may not all be perfect lessons, but how do we take those and apply them to 2025 to ensure that what the continent went through in 2024 was not a wasted year? We also see a piece from Afrobarometer. Afrobarometer is a leading research and public opinion institution on the continent and Afrobarometer. There were actually one of the authors who wrote in some of our previous publications, Africa Year in Review Publications, but to see them here highlights the importance of citizen perceptions of ensuring that development is people centered.
And this is something that this is a theme that we see consistently in all our Africa Year in reviews the importance of ensuring that people are at the center of the leadership decisions, of the development decisions, of the governance decisions that are made. Obviously, 2024 was also a big year where we saw young people, young people on the African continent take center stage in Kenya, where there were protests, where young people in Kenya they called the Gen Z protest, where young people across ethnic groups, across religious groups came together to basically protest against some government policies that they did, government policies that they didn't agree with.
I think 2024 really highlighted the importance of Africa's growing demographic and how to ensure that they are engaged effectively. So on the final piece, global engagement, before we get your thoughts on that, I want to provide a little context for what will be our concluding remarks. And it has to do with something you just mentioned, you know, the youth bulge and that youth demographics for it seems like it's been a long time.
We've been talking about countries on the African continent in terms of great untapped potential, a youthful demographic that will present all kinds of opportunities and challenges. And then in the final piece, which you had referenced earlier in the year in review by Alex Vines of Chatham House, the African Union becomes full member of G20. One of the things he writes is it's a watershed moment, a watershed moment for amplifying Afro Africa's voice in global forums.
And what I'm interested in, your thoughts on, okay, is are we at some sort of inflection point where a lot of what we were talking about as coming soon, the youth demographic bulge, this great untapped potential, Is it starting to reach fruition? Are we getting to a point where we're going to see some of this stuff, as you said in some of your earlier comments go from theory to practice to progress and then also simmering in the background of this, which we haven't talked about explicitly, is the strategic competition with China in particular.
But Russia also has made overtures on the African continent. I know that's a lot of contacts to give you, and I don't expect you to cover it all in great detail. But if you could maybe talk about that a bit in terms of the concept of global engagement. Yeah, sure. So before I go to that, I actually just want to touch on one thing on the question of democracy, of course.
I think one of the themes that we saw consistently in 2024 was sort of this narrative of democracy in decline on the on the continent. But I think as we take a closer look, that narrative often overlooks sort of the longer term trends and changes that we've seen across the continent. And I think one of the pieces in here also highlights that as well.
The piece from the NCC highlights that where we only talk sometimes only talk about democracy in decline, it overlooks some of the progress, some of the changes that we've seen happening across the continent. And as I highlight with the elections that we saw in 2024, we saw elections in Senegal where citizens were at the center of that vote to ensure that a president that was trying to amend the Constitution to run for another term in office to ensure that that didn't happen.
And Senegal emerged with the youngest president on the continent after those elections. We saw elections in South Africa where the leading ANC, for the first time since the end of apartheid lost its majority and now is in the government of national unity. We saw elections in Botswana where the party that had been in power since independence lost the elections.
We saw elections in Namibia where Namibia, as it emerged, which a female president. So there were so many dynamic changes that we saw happen on the continent. And so it's important for us to put that into context. What this Africa Year review, this ten year anniversary allows us to do, enables us to do is is to show that, look, there really isn't that sometimes we shouldn't only focus on sort of a linear progression of of things.
Things change and we have to be mindful and sort of study the trends closely to see how things change and not get caught up in marriage in the in one singular narrative. Yeah. Thank you for bringing that up. I mean, really, you know, I think that's a that is instructive for any kind of analysis. Right? If you get lost in the headlines, sometimes you're missing the trend lines.
Exactly. Exactly. And then to your points, too, as well on the question of strategic competition, I think it's important to note that we are going into a multipolar world and as Africa continues to as the world continues to move towards this on this multipolar spectrum, the African continent, like others too, as well, African countries like several other countries, will continue to look for different partners.
Partnership will continue to diversify. And I think when we pull up that question of, you know, strategic competition and you often hear the comments or sometimes in the headlines where it says, you know, the U.S. is losing Africa to China, China is making a lot of inroads on the African continent. Where is the U.S.? And sometimes I have to tell folks or very often not Sometimes this time I tell folks all the time, yes, you need to step back and understand sort of the consistency and predictability in which China and other actors may handle their their engagement with countries on the African continent compared to how we in the US engage with the continent where
we're engagement with the continent very often is inconsistent and unpredictable. And so this is a wake up call for the United States that African countries and I think this is where when we go back to the conversation about making sure that we pay attention to citizens views and citizen perceptions. If we go back to some Afrobarometer data, I think in one of the pieces that they actually published for us, I think it was in our Africa year in review in 2021, I think so.
I think it was our 2021 edition or 2021 of those where their data basically showed that African citizens basically view Chinese influence on the African continent, imposing that let me rephrase that, that African countries that view Chinese influence on the continent as positive are also likely to view us engagements in their countries as positive. Now, what we can draw from that data, and this was survey conducted in 34 countries, what we can draw from that data is that African citizens are not interested in competition, They're not picking sides, they're not giving and they're not picking sides.
So they view the Chinese engagement and US engagement as positive. And so at the end of the day, what does that tell us as the U.S., rather than competing, let us define and recognize what our interests are in content in India, in the different African countries that we engage in. Let us recognize what our comparative advantages are and then let us think through a long term, a longer term approach and a longer term strategy for engagement on the African continent.
And in this year, the foreign Minister of China traveled. He took a tour across, I believe it was, four different countries on the African continent. And this was basically keeping in mind maintaining a 35 year tradition that they've always had to begin their diplomatic visits on the African continent. So they're consistent. Their approach is predictable. We need to do more on our side on the U.S. to build and sustain our relationships with African countries.
And as we go back from 2015 to 2024 of our Africa Year review, several pieces, several articles here seemed to tell that that same story that to strengthen U.S. Africa relations, we need to have sort of a clearer approach idea where we identify our interest, identify what our comparative advantages are, and build out a longer term and longer term approach for engagement.
And to the point about, you know, as we move into a multipolar world, it's not just about China on the African continent. Turkey, as we saw in the piece about the the Horn of Africa, in the Horn of Africa, peace. Turkey has stepped up in the region and played a mediation role towards resolving the conflict in what could have been a catastrophe in the in the Horn of Africa.
We see Saudi Arabia stepping up too, as well in funding and supporting in UAE from some reports that we've seen, is now the largest supporter of startups on the African continent. So I think, again, as we as we move into this space, there are other actors beyond China, beyond Russia, that are at play and the African continent and African countries see this.
They recognize this. I think if you watch the public events, Alex volumes describes it as and I and I'm not going to describe it as eloquently as he put it, but I think he said he said something about allocating them as there are several options on the table and African countries off are free to pick from any of these options.
It is up to us in the US or in Europe or elsewhere to make ourselves the preferred partner. I like that challenge. The US is not the only item on the buffet line, so it is going to have to compete for space. Okay. Thank you. I mean always for your thoughtful analysis and your insights and also this publication.
Again, I can't endorse it enough or urge people who are watching or listening this program to take a read of it. You'll learn a lot in a very brief time. Time well spent. Thanks. Okay. Thank you so much, John. It's it's my pleasure. And again, as you mentioned, the publication is also available online. And we have our public all the Africa Year review publications from 2015.
If you want to, you know, go back and read and see what has changed. We will continue to do that, which you clearly did. As you will seamlessly remind. Thanks. Our guest has been Oge Onubogu of the director of the Wilson Center's Africa program. We hope you enjoyed this edition of Wilson Center now and that you'll join us again soon.
Until then, for all of us at the center, I'm John Milewski. Thanks for your time and interest.
